Monday, February 8, 2010

ACC Basketball Rankings Feb 8-Feb 15; Maryland Terrapins moving upward.

Quietly the Maryland Terrapins have been playing solid basketball for weeks. Now it's time to take notice. Gary William's Terps humiliated North Carolina in College Park Sunday. They look like the one team that could really threaten Duke in the ACC.
There are as many as 8 ACC teams are still legitimately in fighting for any where from 5-7 NCAA bid. It's to early say how many bids the ACC will get, but I'm thinking 6 at the moment.

Previous ACC Basketball All About Sports Blog Rankings
Preseason
Dec 13-Dec 20

Dec 21-Dec 28
Dec 28 - Jan 4
Jan 4 - Jan 11
Jan 11 - Jan 18
Jan 18 - Jan 25
Jan 25 - Feb 1
Feb 1 - Feb 8

1) Duke Blue Devils (19-4, 7-2) Last week - 1
It was a good week for the Duke Blue Devils. They beat Georgia Tech by 19 at home, and then went on the road to beat Boston College. Kyle Singler had 30 in the win over the Jackets and looked to have regained his shot. Jon Scheyer and Nolan Smith are rock solid. Inside the Blue Devils are shaky, but Singler can be the X-factor. Big week upcoming for Duke, Wednesday they play at North Carolina then they host Maryland on Saturday.

2) Maryland Terrapins (16-6, 6-2) Last week 7
The 21 point win over North Carolina really didn't open my eyes. Everyone is beating the Heels these days. The 71-67 win over Florida State did catch my attention. Road wins are tough enough to come by in the ACC, and the Terps got one over a solid Seminole team. Gary Williams has coached this squad into the ACC's best shooting team. One that's averaging over 80 points a game. A home game against Virginia is Wednesday. Then there is the monster game at Duke. Williams had success in Cameron the early part of this decade. Can he win there again?

3) Wake Forest Demon Deacons (16-5, 6-3) Last week - 6
Just how good are the Demon Deacons and how good can they be? The Deacs had a couple nice wins this week. They beat Miami 62-53 then picked up a really good win at Virginia in overtime. With two home games this week Boston College on Tuesday and Georgia Tech on Saturday, the Deacs have an opportunity to make a real push in the ACC race.

4) Florida State Seminoles (17-6, 5-4) Last week - 2
I think this week proved the Noles are a good team, but that there is still much for improvement. They beat Miami 71-65, but lost at home to Maryland 71-67. The Seminoles and Georgia Tech are very similar teams. They even have the exact same record. Athletic and talented teams, that I don't believe play often enough to their potential. They have a road game at Clemson Wednesday then Boston College at home Sunday.

5) Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (17-6, 5-4) Last week - 3
Georgia Tech did not play well this week. The defense against Duke was non-existent. Duke's Kyle Singler looked like he was in a gym practicing 3 ptrs he was so wide open most of the game. Against NC State the Jackets nearly blew a 16 point with 5 minutes left in what would have been a disastrous home loss. Georgia Tech barely squeaked by the Pack 73-71. With two road games Wednesday at Miami then Saturday at against Wake Forest, the Jackets need to win at least one.

6) Virginia Cavaliers (14-7, 5-3) Last week 4
Virginia is my surprise team in the ACC so far this year, but the 64-61 OT home loss to Wake Forest is going to hurt. This is a critical week for the Cavaliers. With such a low RPI #94 and a lack of quality non-conference wins, the Cavs have to finish above .500 in the ACC. A road game at Maryland is Wednesday. Saturday is a road game at Virginia Tech. Stealing one is a must for the Cavaliers, but it won't be easy.

7) Virgina Tech Hokies(18-4, 5-3) Last week - 8
Virginia Tech might be the only 18-4 team in the country, that you are not sure about. Sure Malcolm Delany and Jeff Allen are great, but the Hokies remind of where Maryland was 2 weeks ago. They are playing well, but are they tournament worthy? Maryland is proving they are, but what about the Hokies? If they are they should beat NC State even on the road Feb 10, and Virginia at home Feb 13.

8) Clemson Tigers (16-7, 4-5) Last week - 5
The Tigers got Demontez Stitt back at guard for their game against Virginia Tech. He still didn't look 100%, as he scored only 3 points in the 70-59 loss. With two home games Wednesday against Florida State then Saturday with Miami, Clemson needs to win both to again feel secure about an at large NCAA bid. Trevor Booker can't carry this team alone, if others don't step up the Tigers are in trouble.

9) Boston College Eagles (12-11, 3-6) Last week 9
There is no quit in Boston College which I like, but there is just isn't alot talent for Al Skinner to work with. They gave Duke a scare late, but lost 66-63 in their only game this week. They have two tough road games this week, at Wake Forest Wednesday then at Florida State Sunday. The Eagles have to stay above .500 to have a shot at any post-season tournament.

10) Miami Hurricanes (16-7, 2-7) Last week - 10
Miami lost both of their games this week, a 9 point loss at Wake Forest and 6 point loss at Florida State which dropped Miami to 2-7 in the ACC. They'll be relegated to the roll of spoiler the rest of way barring a miracle turnaround. They are perfectly capable of beating Georgia Tech at home Wednesday and even beating a hobbled Clemson team on the road Saturday. I don't think they'll win both, but a 1-1 week wouldn't surprise me at all.

11) North Carolina Tar Heels (13-10, 2-6) Last week - 11
What can you say about the Tar Heels that's hasn't been said already? They played ok at Virginia Tech and lost by 4, but they quit at Maryland. Once they got down 8 - 10 points in the 2nd half to the Terps they got steamrolled. I don't think Roy Williams can save this team. He might be part of the problem. The Heels want to run every possession, but hey Roy Ty Lawson isn't back there any more. Duke comes to Chapel Hill on Wednesday and NC State visits the Dean Dome on Saturday. Is there any chance they can win both as one last great gasp on the season?

12) North Carolina State Wolfpack(14-10, 2-7) Last week 12
It is just more bad luck for the Wolfpack. They nearly came back from a 16 point deficit at Georgia Tech but missed on a desperation three that would have won the game. They played poorly at Virginia and lost 59-47. I still feel like the Wolfpack have an upset or two just waiting to happen. They get Virginia Tech at home Wednesday, then head to North Carolina Saturday where the loser will fill the bottom spot on this list next week.

Monday's February 8 ACC NCAA Bracket Projections.

How are the ACC teams looking this week in the latest NCAA Bracket projections?
From RealTimeRPI.com and Kenpom.com here are the power rankings of the ACC teams projected to make the NCAA field.
Duke Blue Devils
ESPN - #2 seed South
CNNSI - #3 seed West
College RPI - #3
KenPom ranking - #2

Clemson Tigers
ESPN - #11 seed Midwest
CNNSI - #11 seed East
College RPI - #40
KenPom ranking - #22

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
ESPN - #6 seed West
CNNSI - #6 seed Midwest
College RPI - #25
Ken Pom ranking - #2

Wake Forest Demon Deacons
ESPN - #6 seed South
CNNSI - #6 seed East
College RPI - #16
Ken Pom ranking - #30

Florida State Seminoles
ESPN - #8 seed Midwest
CNNSI - #10 seed South
College RPI - #43
Ken Pom ranking - #23

Maryland Terrapins
ESPN - #8 seed South
CNNSI -#9 Midwest
College RPI -#44
Ken Pom ranking - #8

Virginia Tech Hokies
ESPN - N/A
CNNSI - #12 West
College RPI -#64
Ken Pom ranking - #35

The Clemson Tigers are slipping after losing 4 of their last 5, and might want to start putting some wins together. They are hanging on by a thread.
Virginia Tech makes an appearance on the CNNSI's NCAA Bracket projections, but despite an 18-4 (5-3) record their weak RPI is hurting them. I don't think they can get in without a winning record in the ACC.
If the Hokies are tied at 8-8 in the conference with a Georgia Tech team that finished 8-8 in the conference, the Jackets are the team that's going to get selected because of the RPI difference.
Virginia really needed to beat Wake Forest at home to stay on the NCAA radar. They didn't.
Oh and North Carolina is history...

Sunday, February 7, 2010

ACC Basketball Picture starting to clear up or is it?

On a Super Bowl Sunday, I just wanted to put down a few quick thoughts on the ACC Basketball picture from this weekend. I'll be putting out my ACC rankings tomorrow with analysis.

Duke seems to be in control of the conference at 7-2 in the ACC, and in fine shape. Maryland continues to play solid basketball and after disposing of North Carolina sit 6-2 in the ACC.
The bottom of the conference with Boston College, North Carolina, Miami, and NC State has pretty played themselves out of at large NCAA bids. I keep thinking the Heels are going to make a move, but it just doesn't happen. They just keep losing, and now a 21 point loss at Maryland Sunday. The Heels are done for season.

That leaves the middle of the conference with Clemson at 4-5 in the ACC in the 8th spot. Maryland is 2nd at 6-2. That's 7 teams vying for at best 6 spots and at worst 4 NCAA spots. Duke is in. It's going be a crazy finish to the conference season

Here are your current ACC Standings
1) Duke 7-2 (19-4)
2) Maryland 6-2 (16-6)
3) Wake Forest 6-3 (16-5)
4) Virginia Tech 5-3 (18-4)
5) Virginia 5-3 (14-7)
6) Florida State 5-4 (17-6)
7) Georgia Tech 5-4 (17-6)
8) Clemson 4-5 (16-7)
9) Boston College 3-6 (12-11)
10 North Carolina 2-6 (13-10)
11) Miami 2-7 (16-7)
12) NC State 2-7 (14-10)

As for the Super Bowl, I'm taking the Colts 34-30 over the Saints. Peyton Manning gets another Super Bowl.

Friday, February 5, 2010

ACC Basketball's mid-season report

Mid-Season coach of the year: Tony Bennett, Virginia Cavaliers
This was close call between Maryland's Gary Williams and Virginia's Tony Bennett. I'm giving the edge to Bennett though. Virginia wasn't in anyone's predicted top 3 in the conference, but that's exactly where they find themselves at 14-6 (5-2). Bennett has instilled a tough hard-nosed attitude on a team that won't overwhelm you with their talent, but is finding ways to win.
Best Team of the 1st Half: Duke Blue Devils
I have to go with the Duke Blue Devils on this one. At 18-4 (6-2), the lead the ACC, and are undefeated at Cameron. They've struggled on the road, but have beat Connecticut and have 42 point win over a good UNC Charlotte squad. If Kyle Singler can continue to shoot like he did in the Georgia Tech game scoring 30 while going 8 for 10 from 3 pt range, then Duke will be really tough to beat. In a year where the ACC lacks a dominant team the Dukies are the best of the bunch.
Most surprising Team of the 1st Half: Virginia Cavaliers
Going back to Virginia here. Did you know the Cavaliers lead the ACC in scoring defense giving up only 60.9 points? They are also second in the ACC FT shooting at 74.4%. That's winning with solid defense and good fundamentals. It doesn't hurt that Sylven Landesburg is one of the best players in the conference. He's averaging 17 points a game. This was team that was thought to be a year or two from competing in the ACC. The Cavs had other ideas.
Most disappointing Team of the 1st Half: North Carolina Tar Heels
This is an easy call here. It's North Carolina. The defending national champions are 13-9 and stand an ugly 2-5 in the ACC. The Heels were expected to be down after the departure of players like; Tyler Hansbrough, Wayne Ellington, and Ty Lawson, but they shouldn't be this bad. The guards Larry Drew II and Marcus Ginyard have at best been inconsistent and at worst down right poor. Coach Roy Williams is searching for answers.
Best player of the First Half: Jon Scheyer, Duke Blue Devils
Jon Scheyer of Duke gets my vote. I've never felt Scheyer was a natural point guard, but he's doing a great job running the Blue Devils offense. He's in the top 5 in the ACC in scoring and assists and is the conference's leading free throw shooting. If he weren't at Duke they'd have 3 or 4 more losses than they do now.
Who's going to make the NCAAs
Duke Blue Devils, Wake Forest Demon Deacons, Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets, Maryland Terrapins, Clemson Tigers, Florida State.
Either Virginia Tech Hokies or Virginia Cavaliers will be ACC's 7th team.

2nd Half predicted finish
1) Duke Blue Devils; 25-6 (12-4)
2) Maryland Terrapins; 21-9 (11-5)
3) Wake Forest Demon Deacons; 21-7 (11-5)
4) Virginia Cavaliers; 18-11 (9-7)
5) Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets; 21-9 (9-7)
6) Clemson Tigers; 20-10 (8-8)
7) Florida State Seminoles; 20-10 (8-8)
8) Virginia Tech Hokies; 21-9 (8-8)
9) North Carolina Tar Heels; 17-13 (7-9)
10) Boston College Eagles; 15-15 (6-10)
11) NC State Wolfpack; 17-14 (5-11)
12) Miami Hurricanes; 18-12 (4-12)

Should the NCAA Basketball Tournament expand to 96 teams?

When I first heard about this on a sports message board a few weeks ago, I kind of blew it off, expansion of the NCAA basketball tournament? March Madness? This idea is starting to gain some legs and I don't like it one bit. ESPN reported in their article "Expansion is still a work in progress" that the possibility is being discussed, no final decisions have been made.
Why am I not in favor of expansion? I think the tournament already overshadows the college basketball season. College Basketball starts in November, but most sports fans are barely paying attention to it until mid-January. Then it becomes the wild wonderful scramble to be one of the select 64. 30 conference tournaments, and 34 at large bids, plus the Ivy League Regular season champion. I understand that there are over 340 Division 1 teams, but every team gets their shot at the big dance in their conference tournament.
What I fear would happen is that the mid major 25 win school will still get left out, and the 17-14 BCS conference team gets a bid. We suddenly have a 4 week tournament going and some schools playing 7 games to try win the national title. Jeff Schultz of AJC, also disagrees with the expansion to 96 teams citing the possibility of 9 or 10 major conference teams getting. Are there really 10 deserving Big 12 or ACC teams? I could go along with adding 3 or 4 more slots, but 96 teams, that's not for me.

Wednesday, February 3, 2010

A quick look at each ACC team's recruiting on National Signing Day.

I think most of us realize that that recruiting is an inexact science. The 5 star players that barely play a down and the 2 star players that become All-Americans.
You never know how good a class really is for at least a couple of years. So I won't bother ranking the classes. That said take the same coach on 2 different teams and my team of 5 star players will beat yours full of 2 star guys every time.
Atlantic Division
Clemson Tigers
What I like: Very athletic class, and deep with solid defensive backs. The Tigers honored the scholarship of Jake Nicolopulos who suffered a stroke in December. Nice move by Clemson.
What I don't like: I would have like to see Clemson sign a QB, with the status Kyle Parker uncertain and Tajh Boyd so inexperienced.
Florida State Seminoles
What I like: The ending, FSU signed 2 4 star players and 1 5 star player on signing day. The talent is there in this class

What I don't like: I couldn't really find anything. This is a deep well balanced group of signees. Jimbo Fisher has got at least recruiting down.
Maryland Terrapins
What I like: The Terps picked up a good group of linebackers. Javarie Johnson was one of the highest rated LBs in the country.
What I don't like: This class looks a little short on skill position talent. Terps don't have many game breakers, and I didn't see much here either.
Wake Forest Demon Deacons
What I like: I'm a fan of tall receivers, and the Deacs got a couple of good ones, 6-5 Brandon Terry and 6-4 Matt James.
What I don't like: I'd like to see Wake Forest more physical along the defensive line, and I don't think the Deacs really addressed that overall need in this class.
North Carolina State Wolfpack
What I like: Offensive line. I like tall WR's, and I like tall offensive linemen with frames to build on. This bunch linemen is huge.
What I don't like: Tom O' Brien must be happy with his LB numbers or some guys are moving from this class, because he didn't sign a single one.
Boston College Eagles
What I like: BC is never known for its speed. This class has several offensive guys with sub 4.5 40s.
What I don't like: Stars don't mean everything, but 8 2 Star guys according to Scout. Is that to many reaches? Maybe...
Coastal Division
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
What I like: How about signing two 4 star corners and eleven defensive players total? That is where the Jackets needed the most help at on defense.
What I don't like: I would have like to see some higher profile offensive guys signed. A couple of the RB's are in the sleeper category.
Virginia Tech Hokies
What I like: Good class across the board. There wasn't any particular position that didn't get addressed.
What I didn't like: Typical Virginia Tech class, good yes great no. Hokies need to elevate their recruiting to get to the level of the Floridas and Alabamas of the world.
Miami Hurricanes
What I like: Canes got a great set of running backs in this class. Eduardo Clements has the best chance to be star.
What I don't like: For a defensive line that struggled, this class didn't appear to totally address that need. The D-line recruits are leaning closer to sleepers/projects than can't miss.
North Carolina Tar Heels
What I like: On paper this looks like one the ACC's best classes. There are several high profile signings.
What I don't like: Looking at the Tar Heel's roster they could have signed a quarterback. Definitely need to address that next year.
Virginia Cavaliers
What I like: Morgan Moses is 6-6, 340. That's tremendous size for a future offensive lineman.
What I don't like: It's tough to get big name players during a coaching change, and it showed in Virginia's class.
Duke Blue Devils
What I like: This Duke class appears to have some decent looking skill position talent.
What I don't like: It's hard for Duke to compete for the nation's best recruits. They just don't have the fan support or facilities. Duke fans step up!

Tuesday, February 2, 2010

Tuesday's February 2 ACC NCAA Bracket Projections.

Sorry my internet was on the fritz yesterday so the ACC Teams Bracket Projections are a day late.

Here are the latest NCAA Bracket projections.
From CollegeRPI.com and Kenpom.com here are the power rankings of the ACC teams projected to make the NCAA field.
For you RPI junkies RealTimeRPI.com updates each day with $ signs listed for quality wins
Duke Blue Devils
ESPN - #3 seed Midwest
CNNSI - #3 seed East
College RPI - #5
KenPom ranking - #2

Clemson Tigers
ESPN - #8 seed South
CNNSI - #8 seed Midwest
College RPI - #37
KenPom ranking - #22

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
ESPN - #5 seed East
CNNSI - #5 seed West
College RPI - #25
Ken Pom ranking - #20

Wake Forest Demon Deacons
ESPN - #6 seed South
CNNSI - #6 seed South
College RPI - #23
Ken Pom ranking - #34

Florida State Seminoles
ESPN - #7 seed West
CNNSI - #8 seed East
College RPI - #30
Ken Pom ranking - #24

Maryland Terrapins
ESPN - #11 seed East
CNNSI -N/A
College RPI -#50
Ken Pom ranking - #11

This isn't good for the ACC. For several weeks in a row, the league appeared to have 7 bids locked in, now ESPN is down to 6 and CNNSI is down to 5. In addition Duke is the highest ACC seeded team at 3. When was the last time the ACC didn't have a 1 or 2 seed in the big dance?
North Carolina's recent home loss to Virginia and losers of 4 of their last 5 might have them headed to the NIT, because they aren't showing up on any projected brackets anymore. Looks like winning in Chapel Hill isn't what it used to be. Despite the road win the Cavaliers still don't show up in any projected brackets despite a 13-6 (4-2) record.
Keep an eye on these 3 teams, Georgia Tech, Wake Forest, and Florida State. One of those three is going to go on a mini run, maybe in the ACC tournament and will land a top 4 seed.
 
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